Brownlow Medal Guide, Round 17 2021
Round 17 is complete, and the Top 6 of the AFL Ladder looks almost set. The last two spots for the eight are up for grabs, with a bunch of sides still a finals chance.
A couple of genuine contenders from the start of the season are struggling, and the Tigers and Eagles may miss the finals after some abysmal performances in recent weeks.
A Saint is making a charge for the medal with a brilliant last couple of months of footy and is now within a vote of the leaders. Both Jack Steele and Christian Petracca polled well in last years count and are looking to be right up there with six rounds left.
Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor for Round 17 of the 2021 AFL Season.
Be sure to check back each week of the 2021 AFL Season for an in-depth look at some of the better players for each round and who should get the votes.
Round by Round analysis of the Brownlow Medal Count. Who gets the Brownlow Votes, and who has the best chance to become the Brownlow Medal Winner on Brownlow Medal Night.
This Brownlow Medal Tracker features the players that have the best chance of getting the votes and three other players that are considered a vote chance.
A Star ⭐ rating is used to show the confidence level of each three-vote prediction.
⭐ = Tough Game to Pick
⭐⭐ = A Decent Chance
⭐⭐⭐ = Should get the 3 Votes
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne
Port Adelaide 8.7 55 – Melbourne 12.14 86
(Melbourne by 31 Points)
The Demons controlled this match from the get-go and never allowed the Power to get back into the contest.
Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver were awesome at extracting the football in this clash, and they provided a lot of headaches for the Power midfielders.
Max Gawn won the ruck battle, and Tom McDonald continues to impress up forward for the Dees. The elite ball use and smart decision making from Christian Salem and Steven May was again another reason the Demons were tough to beat.
The Power were beaten, but Karl Amon, Ollie Wines and Travis Boak all had good games. It wasn’t enough though and the Demons may very well sweep the votes in this one.
Vote Chances
Max Gawn – 18 Disposals, 5 Marks (2 Contested and 2 Intercept Marks), 4 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 7 Hit-outs to advantage, 5 One Percenters, 4 Spoils and 417 Metres Gained
Ollie Wines – 33 Disposals (16 Contested), 5 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets and 1 Goal
Travis Boak – 25 Disposals (20 Effective and 14 Contested), 8 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 28 Pressure Acts and 2 Goal Assists
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Melbourne) Clayton Oliver (23)
31 Disposals (24 Effective and 21 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks, 12 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles and 25 Pressure Acts
2 Votes (Melbourne) Tom McDonald (7)
19 Disposals (13 Effective), 8 Marks (3 Contested and 3 Marks Inside 50), 10 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 3 Tackles (3 Tackles Inside 50), 3 One Percenters, 3 Spoils, 416 Metres Gained, 2 Goal Assists and 3 Goals
Lock of the Week
3 Votes (Melbourne) Christian Petracca (22) ⭐⭐⭐
33 Disposals (26 Effective and 13 Contested), 8 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 7 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 21 Pressure Acts, 788 Metres Gained and 3 Goals
Note – The Demons got the away win in Adelaide, and Petracca was a clear standout hitting the scoreboard with a few goals. 30+ Disposals and three goals for a midfielder usually lands the three votes.
Essendon vs Adelaide
Essendon 11.18 84 – Adelaide 2.9 21
(Essendon by 63 Points)
The Crows got the Primetime Friday Night Fixture, and football fans were left disappointed in what was one of the ugliest games of the season. The Bombers got the win, but this game never took off and even picking out some of the better players will be tough.
Zach Merrett was a standout in this clash with elite use of the football and a lot of disposals. Mason Redman, Jordan Ridley and Nick Hind were solid on the back half, and youngster Archie Perkins was lively up forward and probably should have kicked a bag. Jake Stringer also continued his impressive recent form.
The Crows were terrible in this match, but Rory Laird and Paul Seedsman were again two of their best.
Vote Chances
Nick Hind – 24 Disposals (23 Effective), 5 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 574 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Archie Perkins – 18 Disposals, 4 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 4 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements and 3 Goals
Jordan Ridley – 23 Disposals (22 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 11 Marks (3 Intercept Marks), 8 One Percenters and 7 Spoils
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Essendon) Jake Stringer (4)
23 Disposals (16 Effective and 13 Contested), 8 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 24 Pressure Acts, 562 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
2 Votes (Essendon) Mason Redman (2)
25 Disposals (22 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 11 Marks (5 Intercept Marks and 3 Contested), 4 Inside 50s, 6 Rebound 50s, 6 Score Involvements and 425 Metres Gained
3 Votes (Essendon) Zach Merrett (16) ⭐⭐⭐
35 Disposals (28 Effective), 4 Marks, 5 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 508 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Note – This was probably one of the most unattractive football games of the season, and it happened to be on a Prime Time Friday Night. Zach Merrett was the clear standout and used the footy at high efficiency throughout the win.
Hawthorn vs Fremantle
Hawthorn 6.10 46 – Fremantle 16.12 108
(Fremantle by 62 Points)
The Hawks hosted the Dockers in Tassie, and Fremantle proved too good on the back of a stellar performance from emerging ruckman Sean Darcy.
Darcy won the ruck battle and took a handful of contested marks to be the favourite for best on ground honours.
The Dockers other big man Rory Lobb got off to a quick start with an impressive first half, whilst Nat Fyfe, David Mundy, Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw won the midfield battle.
The Hawks were disappointing in this clash, but Tom Mitchell racked up the possessions as he generally does.
Vote Chances
Tom Mitchell – 39 Disposals (32 Effective and 10 Contested), 7 Clearances, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 26 Pressure Acts and 404 Metres Gained
Caleb Serong – 30 Disposals (20 Effective and 17 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 10 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles and 1 Goal Assist
Rory Lobb – 13 Disposals, 8 Marks (5 Marks Inside 50 and 3 Contested), 9 Score Involvements and 4 Goals
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Fremantle) Nat Fyfe (10)
31 Disposals (20 Effective and 10 Contested), 6 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 12 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 22 Pressure Acts, 402 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
2 Votes (Fremantle) David Mundy (16)
30 Disposals (25 Effective and 10 Contested), 4 Marks, 6 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 452 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals
3 Votes (Fremantle) Sean Darcy (10) ⭐⭐
25 Disposals (22 Effective and 16 Contested), 9 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks (7 Intercept Marks and 6 Contested), 5 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 13 Hit-outs to advantage, 4 One Percenters and 486 Metres Gained
Note – After years of being injury-prone, Darcy is finally fully fit and is emerging as a contender as one of the premier ruckman in the competition. A solid work rate in the win and had many contested marks, whilst using the footy at a high-efficiency rate.
Carlton vs Geelong
Carlton 5.14 44 – Geelong 10.10 70
(Geelong by 26 Points)
The Blues kicked themselves out of this one, and the Cats were able to capitalize and make the most of the Blues inaccuracy in front of the sticks.
Tom Stewart was again rock-solid down back, as was Lachie Henderson, whilst Zach Tuohy showed off his elite foot skills.
Cam Guthrie and Issac Smith were busy throughout the middle of the ground, and Shaun Higgins was able to rack up a lot of uncontested footy, which is where he excels.
The Blues were ok in this match, but the standout was Sam Walsh. With an incredible work rate and elite running power, Walsh racked up a lot of the football and used it at high-efficiency rate.
Vote Chances
Cam Guthrie – 28 Disposals (21 Effective and 13 Contested), 5 Marks, 7 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles and 21 Pressure Acts,
Shaun Higgins – 25 Disposals (20 Effective), 7 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 3 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Lachie Henderson – 20 Disposals (17 Effective), 4 Intercept Possessions, 11 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 4 Rebound 50s, 4 One Percenters and 495 Metres Gained
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Geelong) Zach Tuohy (2)
24 Disposals (21 Effective), 7 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50 and 2 Intercept Marks), 4 Rebound 50s, 4 Ground Ball Gets and 2 Goals
2 Votes (Geelong) Tom Stewart (7)
25 Disposals (21 Effective), 10 Intercept Possessions, 12 Marks (3 Intercept Marks and 2 Contested), 7 Rebound 50s, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 5 One Percenters, 5 Spoils and 619 Metres Gained
3 Votes (Carlton) Sam Walsh (19) ⭐⭐
36 Disposals (31 Effective and 11 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks, 4 Clearances, 9 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 452 Metres Gained and 2 Goals
Note – The Blues lost the match, but Walsh was the best player on the ground. It was more of a solid team effort for the Cats with no real standouts. Walsh used the footy well, but the Blues lost, which never makes the three votes a certainty.
Brisbane vs St Kilda
Brisbane 8.15 63 – St Kilda 14.11 95
(St Kilda by 32 Points)
The Saints have strung three wins in a row and surprised the Lions with some elite pressure off the football.
Jack Steele was again brilliant in this clash and may be shaping up as a dark horse as he will be a vote chance in many matches, and the Saints don’t have a lot of consistent stars.
Tim Membrey was lively up forward for most of the match, and Max King presented well up forward to provide some headaches against a good Lions defence.
Luke Dunstan was again impressive, and the experienced Zak Jones is always a handy acquisition with his willingness to win the footy.
The Lions were disappointing, but Dayne Zorko booted three goals, and Lachie Neale racked up a lot of the footy.
Vote Chances
Lachie Neale – 31 Disposals (25 Effective and 13 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks, 9 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles and 29 Pressure Acts
Luke Dunstan – 29 Disposals (24 Effective and 10 Contested), 4 Marks, 6 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets and 530 Metres Gained
Max King – 13 Disposals, 10 Marks (5 Contested and 5 Marks Inside 50), 6 Score Involvements, 1 Goal Assist and 3 Goals
Projected Votes
1 Vote (St Kilda) Zak Jones (4)
26 Disposals (22 Effective and 13 Contested), 10 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets and 1 Goal Assist
2 Votes (St Kilda) Tim Membrey (5)
17 Disposals (12 Effective), 14 Marks (5 Marks Inside 50), 4 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 5 One Percenters, 5 Spoils, 400 Metres Gained and 2 Goals
3 Votes (St Kilda) Jack Steele (22) ⭐⭐⭐
32 Disposals (29 Effective and 12 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks, 6 Clearances, 9 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 23 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals
Note – Can Jack Steele the medal? The Saint is on a charge, and there are not many other Saints that are projected to take votes off him. He was a clear standout in Brisbane with a lot of effective disposals and hit the scoreboard with a couple of goals.
GWS vs Gold Coast
GWS 9.10 64 – Gold Coast 10.5 65
(Gold Coast by 1 Point)
The Suns strung together their second win in a row and proved they can match it with the better sides on occasions.
Touk Miller was again their best player with a lot of the football and featured once again in some of the key statistical areas.
Veterans Brandon Ellis and David Swallow had decent matches, whilst Chris Burgess held his own in the ruck. Defender Charlie Ballard was solid down back and the best defender on the ground.
For the Giants, Jacob Hopper was brilliant in the middle and should feature in the votes, whilst Josh Kelly had his usual impact.
Callan Ward and Tom Green were good in the middle, and the always dangerous Toby Greene booted 3 Goals.
Vote Chances
Josh Kelly – 27 Disposals (15 Contested), 7 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Tackles, 32 Pressure Acts and 482 Metres Gained
Toby Greene – 21 Disposals, 4 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 18 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 3 Goals
Charlie Ballard – 19 Disposals (15 Effective), 15 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks (9 Intercept Marks and 2 Contested), 4 Rebound 50s, 8 One Percenters and 7 Spoils
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Gold Coast) Brandon Ellis (3)
41 Disposals (25 Effective and 17 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks, 4 Clearances, 6 Rebound 50s, 15 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles and 24 Pressure Acts
2 Votes (GWS) Jacob Hopper (6)
41 Disposals (17 Contested), 11 Clearances, 12 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 940 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
3 Votes (Gold Coast) Touk Miller (17) ⭐⭐
35 Disposals (24 Effective and 16 Contested), 11 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 14 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 32 Pressure Acts, 403 Metres Gained and 2 Goals
Note – A close match, and Miller was consistent throughout the contest to be the favourite for best on ground honours. He is in an excellent patch of form, but Giant Jacob Hopper was also outstanding in this one. The Suns got the win, so Miller gets the nod.
Western Bulldogs vs Sydney
Western Bulldogs 8.12 60 – Sydney 11.13 79
(Sydney by 19 points)
Not many footy fans expected the Swans to play finals, but they are almost there after a win over the highly ranked Bulldogs side.
Defender Jordan Dawson stood out in this match and went and snuck forward to boot three goals.
The Swans got their usual impact from midfielders Callum Mills and Luke Parker, whilst Jake Lloyd got plenty of cheap possessions, but did have an impact with elite ball use on the back-half.
For the Bulldogs, Marcus Bontempelli, Bailey Smith, Jack Macrae and Caleb Daniel all had good matches, but the Swans were too good in the game.
Vote Chances
Callum Mills – 31 Disposals (22 Effective), 9 Marks, 4 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 21 Pressure Acts and 577 Metres Gained
Jake Lloyd – 33 Disposals (28 Effective), 5 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks, 12 Rebound 50s, 5 Score Involvements and 507 Metres Gained
Caleb Daniel – 30 Disposals (14 Contested), 8 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 474 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Sydney) Tom McCartin (1)
16 Disposals (15 Effective and 9 Contested), 11 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (6 Intercept Marks and 4 Contested), 5 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 12 One Percenters and 11 Spoils
2 Votes (Sydney) Luke Parker (12)
27 Disposals (23 Effective and 14 Contested), 7 Clearances, 4 Rebound 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 27 Pressure Acts, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal
3 Votes (Sydney) Jordan Dawson (3) ⭐⭐
26 Disposals (20 Effective and 11 Contested), 7 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (3 Contested), 7 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 6 One Percenters, 5 Spoils, 511 Metres Gained and 3 Goals
Note – The Swans defender is in a good patch of form and was awesome in the win over the Dogs. Took some impressive contested marks and managed to hit the scoreboard for a few goals. Will be the favourite for best on ground honours.
Richmond vs Collingwood
Richmond 11.5 71 – Collingwood 13.9 87
(Collingwood by 16 Points)
The Tigers led for the first three quarters and controlled the match, but on the back of a seven goal final term, the Pies were able to get the win..
Taylor Adams and Scott Pendlebury were fantastic in the middle of the ground, and Jordan De Goey continues to impress in a new role in the middle.
Jack Crisp and Brayden Maynard were solid in defence, and Brodie Grundy won the ruck battle.
For the Tigers, Dylan Grimes and Jayden Short has decent matches, whilst Shai Bolton was solid in the middle.
Vote Chances
Brayden Maynard – 21 Disposals (14 Effective and 11 Contested), 11 Intercept Possessions, 7 Marks (4 Intercept Marks and 3 Contested), 4 Inside 50s, 6 Rebound 50s, 8 One Percenters, 5 Spoils, 19 Pressure Acts and 481 Metres Gained
Scott Pendlebury – 24 Disposals (22 Effective), 5 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 21 Pressure Acts, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal
Jamie Elliott – 21 Disposals (15 Effective and 10 Contested), 6 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 7 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles (4 Tackles Inside 50), 20 Pressure Acts and 3 Goals
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Collingwood) Jordan De Goey (6)
29 Disposals (20 Effective and 12 Contested), 10 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 4 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal
2 Votes (Collingwood) Jack Crisp (5)
33 Disposals (25 Effective and 11 Contested), 10 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (4 Intercept Marks and 2 Contested), 4 Inside 50s, 7 Rebound 50s, 9 Ground Ball Gets and 601 Metres Gained
3 Votes (Collingwood) Taylor Adams (10) ⭐⭐
31 Disposals (22 Effective and 18 Contested), 11 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 10 Tackles, 26 Pressure Acts, 567 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Note – The Pies finished like a freight train, and Adams played a big part with ten last quarter possessions and a goal. He also had four clearances in the final quarter, but was consistent throughout the win. He will be the favourite for the maximum votes.
West Coast vs North Melbourne
West Coast 8.12 60 – North Melbourne 10.10 70
(North Melbourne by 10 Points)
On a wet Monday Night out West, the Eagles proved many critics right as they again struggled to hold their own in a tight congested match. The Eagles have struggled consistently in recent times to handle sides in wet slippery conditions, and the bottom-ranked Kangaroos were able to take advantage.
Jaidyn Stephenson seemed everywhere in this contest, and wet conditions suit the in and under style of Ben Cunnington, and he was one of the best players out there.
Jy Simpkin and Luke Davies-Uniacke helped the others in the middle, whilst Cam Zurhaar had an impact up forward.
Jack Ziebell and Aaron Hall again won a lot of the footy down back.
For the Eagles, Nic Naitanui turned the footy over a bit, but still managed to win hit-outs and a heap of clearances. Tim Kelly was probably their best, but the chances of an Eagle polling would be slim given they were home favourites and upstaged by the wooden spoon favourites.
Vote Chances
Jy Simpkin – 32 Disposals (23 Effective and 10 Contested), 8 Marks, 4 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 504 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Cam Zurhaar – 16 Disposals, 6 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 4 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 5 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 15 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals
Luke Davies-Uniacke – 24 Disposals (19 Effective and 11 Contested), 5 Marks, 8 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets and 1 Goal Assist
Projected Votes
1 Vote (North Melbourne) Jack Ziebell (1)
27 Disposals (23 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (4 Intercept Marks), 11 Rebound 50s and 533 Metres Gained
2 Votes (North Melbourne) Ben Cunnington (12)
25 Disposals (13 Contested), 8 Marks (2 Contested), 7 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
3 Votes (North Melbourne) Jaidyn Stephenson (3) ⭐⭐⭐
38 Disposals (24 Effective and 12 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (2 Contested), 4 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 547 Metres Gained, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal
Note – Stephenson was on fire with 25 Disposals in the second half of this clash, and he seemed everywhere when the match was up for grabs. A clear best on ground performance from the young Kangaroo.
Leaderboard – Round 17
Top 10
| Name | Projected Votes |
|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | 23 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 23 |
| Darcy Parish | 22 |
| Christian Petracca | 22 |
| Jack Steele | 22 |
| Sam Walsh | 19 |
| Ollie Wines | 19 |
| Jarryd Lyons | 18 |
| Tom Mitchell | 18 |
| Touk Miller | 17 |
| Jack Macrae | 17 |
To see the projected votes from previous rounds, click the Brownlow Medal Predictor 2021 on the menu bar. You can also click the TAGS at the bottom of this post or use the links below.
Cheers and always Gamble Responsibly.