Brownlow Medal Predictor, Round 18 2021
The 2021 AFL Season is drawing close to the final month, and we are now beginning to see which sides might fight it out for the flag. The Cats are starting to look the goods after an impressive win over the Dockers out West and are slowly becoming the outright favourites.
The 2021 Brownlow Medal Count is looking like it might be a lot closer this season. There are several players in contention for the medal, with Ollie Wines and young Carlton gun Sam Walsh both having big matches on the weekend and now within striking distance of the leaders.
Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor for Round 18 of the 2021 AFL Season.
Be sure to check back each week of the 2021 AFL Season for an in-depth look at some of the better players for each round and who should get the votes.
Round by Round analysis of the Brownlow Medal Count. Who gets the Brownlow Votes, and who has the best chance to become the Brownlow Medal Winner on Brownlow Medal Night.
This Brownlow Medal Tracker features the players that have the best chance of getting the votes and three other players that are considered a vote chance.
A Star ⭐ rating is used to show the confidence level of each three-vote prediction.
⭐ = Tough Game to Pick
⭐⭐ = A Decent Chance
⭐⭐⭐ = Should get the 3 Votes
Fremantle vs Geelong
Fremantle 3.13 31 – Geelong 14.16 100
(Geelong by 69 Points)
After a month of playing some of the lower-ranked sides, the Dockers have been good, but hosted the Cats on a wet Thursday evening out West and got a reality check.
The highly ranked Cats side were on from the start and made easy work of the Dockers at Optus Stadium.
Patrick Dangerfield was dangerous for most of the contest, and although his first couple of shots on goal were well off target, he still managed to boot three goals.
WA product Sam Menegola provided a lot of run and carry in this match and also featured in some of the key statistical areas. Cam Guthrie was his usual self in the middle with a lot of the footy, and Quinton Narkle and Zach Tuohy also had an impact in the match.
The big body of forward Tom Hawkins provided many headaches for the Freo backs, and he had a good night booting four goals.
The Dockers were well beaten, and although he came off the ground injured in the latter stages, Sean Darcy was their best player.
Vote Chances
Cam Guthrie – 35 Disposals (12 Contested), 7 Marks, 7 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets and 480 Metres Gained
Zach Tuohy – 30 Disposals (20 Effective), 7 Marks (3 Intercept Marks), 7 Score Involvements and 594 Metres Gained
Luke Dahlhaus – 17 Disposals (14 Effective), 4 Clearances, 7 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 24 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Geelong) Tom Hawkins (5)
14 Disposals (13 Effective), 6 Marks (5 Marks Inside 50 and 3 Contested), 6 Score Involvements, 3 One Percenters, 1 Goal Assist and 4 Goals
2 Votes (Geelong) Patrick Dangerfield (4)
22 Disposals (17 Effective and 13 Contested), 7 Marks (5 Marks Inside 50 and 2 Contested), 6 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 2 Goal Assists and 3 Goals
3 Votes (Geelong) Sam Menegola (4) ⭐⭐
30 Disposals (20 Effective and 11 Contested), 9 Marks, 7 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 6 Rebound 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 745 Metres Gained, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal
Note – Many had Menegola projected to poll well in the count last season, but outside midfielders tend to not go as well as the in and under types. This match was a little different to the many he played last year, and he was well above his average in some of the key statistical areas. He won the footy from stoppages with 7 clearances and racked up double-figure contested possessions in the wet conditions. He also racked up a decent amount of inside 50s, and his kicking generated a lot of metres gained. Dangerfield may pinch the maximum votes, but the impact of Menegola cannot be denied.
Richmond vs Brisbane
Richmond 16.10 106 – Brisbane 13.8 86
(Richmond by 20 Points)
The Tigers needed the win to keep their finals hopes intact, and they came out firing and lifted in Jack Riewoldt’s 300th game. They led the match from start to finish, but the win did come at a cost, with news that the injury to champion Dustin Martin will keep him out for the season.
In this match, Jack Riewoldt was excellent, booting six goals, whilst Mabior Chol stepped up and booted four.
Richmond has missed the influence of their number one ruckman Toby Nankervis, and he was back in this match and made a significant contribution. Other Tigers, that impressed were Shai Bolton, Trent Cotchin found some form, and Jayden Short was reliable down back.
For the Lions, Hugh McCluggage had an excellent night in the middle of the ground, whilst Jarryd Lyons and Dayne Zorko were also influential, but it wasn’t enough.
Vote Chances
Jarryd Lyons – 27 Disposals (22 Effective and 16 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 9 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 35 Pressure Acts, and 1 Goal Assist
Mabior Chol – 10 Disposals (9 Effective), 4 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50 and 2 Contested), 4 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements and 4 Goals
Shai Bolton – 22 Disposals (18 Effective), 5 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 4 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 4 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Richmond) Toby Nankervis (1)
22 Disposals (18 Contested), 10 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks (3 Intercept Marks), 7 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles and 3 One Percenters
2 Votes (Brisbane) Hugh McCluggage (14)
30 Disposals (14 Contested), 5 Marks, 4 Clearances, 5 Rebound 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 24 Pressure Acts, 462 Metres Gained, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal
3 Votes (Richmond) Jack Riewoldt (9) ⭐⭐⭐
14 Disposals, 7 Marks (7 Marks Inside 50 and 3 Contested), 9 Score Involvements, 3 Tackles and 6 Goals
Note – Riewoldt has had a few big matches this season, and he lifted in his 300th game to help the Tigers get the win and boot six goals in the process. All his marks were inside the forward 50, and he made the most of his opportunities. He will be the favourite for the maximum votes.
St Kilda vs Port Adelaide
St Kilda 8.13 61 – Port Adelaide 10.14 74
(Port Adelaide by 13 Points)
The Saints hosted the Power at Marvel Stadium, but the Power proved too talented and won in the closing stages.
Ollie Wines continued to add to his very productive season and had a significant influence in the middle of the ground. The busy Karl Amon had an impact as an outside player with elite use of the football and managed to boot a couple of goals.
Mitch Georgiades was dangerous up forward all day, booting four goals, and Trent McKenzie held his own down back, preventing the Saints big forward Max King from having an impact.
For the Saints, Jack Steele again had an impact in the middle of the ground and was well supported by Brad Crouch and Brad Hill. Rowan Marshall was also good throughout periods in the match, but it wasn’t enough to get the win.
Vote Chances
Brad Crouch – 36 Disposals (20 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 11 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Tackles, 26 Pressure Acts and 515 Metres Gained
Rowan Marshall – 19 Disposals (11 Contested), 6 Marks (2 Contested and 2 Marks Inside 50), 4 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles (4 Tackles Inside 50), 5 Hit-outs to advantage and 2 Goals
Mitch Georgiades – 10 Disposals (7 Effective), 5 Marks (4 Contested and 4 Marks Inside 50), 5 Score Involvements, 4 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 3 Ground Ball Gets and 4 Goals
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Port Adelaide) Karl Amon (3)
26 Disposals (20 Effective), 7 Marks, 4 Score Involvements, 10 Tackles, 28 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals
2 Votes (St Kilda) Jack Steele (24)
37 Disposals (27 Effective and 13 Contested), 7 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks, 4 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 20 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal
3 Votes (Port Adelaide) Ollie Wines (22) ⭐⭐
36 Disposals (24 Effective and 18 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 11 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 14 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 23 Pressure Acts, 553 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Note – The Power had their hands full against the Saints, and it was Wines who was their most consistent performer. He will have Jack Steele as a competitor for the maximum votes, but the Power won the match, and he had a massive last quarter.
Gold Coast vs Western Bulldogs
Gold Coast 11.13 79 – Western Bulldogs 14.6 90
(Western Bulldogs by 11 Points)
The Suns hosted the Bulldogs at Metricon and hung around for most of the contest, but the Bulldogs proved too strong.
Marcus Bontempelli again had a significant impact for the Dogs, with many clearances, inside 50s and pressure off the football.
Bailey Smith and Jack Macrae were again good in the middle of the ground, whilst Caleb Daniel and Bailey Dale racked up many disposals on the back end.
For the Suns, it was again Touk Miller that set up scoring chances with his ability to extract the footy from congestion. Youngster Jeremy Sharp racked up a lot of the footy, and the forgotten Brayden Fiorini continues to prove that he belongs in an AFL side.
Vote Chances
Bailey Smith – 33 Disposals (24 Effective and 17 Contested), 9 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 22 Pressure Acts, 426 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Jeremy Sharp – 30 Disposals (27 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 7 Rebound 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets and 518 Metres Gained
Brayden Fiorini – 32 Disposals (24 Effective and 13 Contested), 4 Marks, 7 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles and 32 Pressure Acts
Projected Votes
1 Vote (W.Bulldogs) Jack Macrae (18)
31 Disposals (26 Effective and 11 Contested), 8 Clearances, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 20 Pressure Acts, 518 Metres Gained and 2 Goals
2 Votes (Gold Coast) Touk Miller (19)
38 Disposals (29 Effective and 17 Contested), 9 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 36 Pressure Acts and 2 Goal Assists
3 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Marcus Bontempelli (26) ⭐⭐
36 Disposals (18 Contested), 9 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 13 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 33 Pressure Acts, 504 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Note – The Dogs got the win, but the Suns hung around, and Touk Miller was very good for most of the contest. Bontempelli racked up a lot of the footy and finished the match off well, but his low disposal efficiency makes the maximum votes no certainty.
Melbourne vs Hawthorn
Melbourne 11.13 79 – Hawthorn 12.7 79
(Draw)
A Draw on a Saturday Night at the MCG, and Hawthorn fans will be wondering where the effort is after an abysmal performance the week prior.
The Demons looked in control at stages, but the Hawks never gave up, and the lively Luke Breust booted a goal in the dying stages to make the scores level.
Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca were again superb in the middle of the ground, and their midfield mate, Jack Viney, who has been injured for most of the season, also stepped up.
Jake Lever was solid down back once again, and Bailey Fritsch was dangerous up forward.
For the Hawks, Tom Mitchell seemed everywhere at stages and racked up a significant amount of disposals. Luke Breust was also dangerous for most of the contest, whilst James Worpel held his own in the middle.
Vote Chances
Jack Viney – 32 Disposals (20 Effective and 17 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 6 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 11 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 31 Pressure Acts and 374 Metres Gained
Jake Lever – 17 Disposals (16 Effective), 15 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (4 Intercept Marks), 7 Rebound 50s, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 14 One Percenters and 11 Spoils
James Worpel – 29 Disposals (10 Contested), 5 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 4 Rebound 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 519 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Melbourne) Christian Petracca (23)
33 Disposals (23 Contested), 9 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 19 Ground Ball Gets, 30 Pressure Acts, 3 One Percenters and 1 Goal Assist
2 Votes (Melbourne) Clayton Oliver (25)
35 Disposals (27 Effective and 16 Contested), 6 Marks, 9 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 13 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 25 Pressure Acts, 581 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
3 Votes (Hawthorn) Tom Mitchell (21) ⭐⭐
39 Disposals (26 Effective and 19 Contested), 10 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks, 6 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 6 Rebound 50s, 15 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 40 Pressure Acts, 610 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Note – The Hawks took it up to the Demons, and Mitchell seemed everywhere at stages. He was in and around the action when the match was up for grabs, but there will be some competition for the three votes with a few Demons having quality games.
North Melbourne vs Essendon
North Melbourne 11.8 74 – Essendon 13.14 92
(Essendon by 18 Points)
The Roos got the early jump on the Bombers and are playing good footy. However, the Bombers proved too good, and Jake Stringer stepped up in the final stages to help the Bombers to a spot in the eight.
Bomber midfielders Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett had a significant impact in the middle of the ground, and Jake Stringer was the X-Factor with three last quarter goals.
Dyson Heppell had a good match down back for the Bombers, and big Peter Wright stepped up with 3 Goals.
For the Kangaroos, Taryn Thomas got off to a fast start with a lot of the football, whilst Jy Simpkin was consistent in the middle throughout the match. Luke Davies-Uniacke won a decent amount of hardball, and all of Aaron Hall’s 31 disposals were uncontested, but he had an impact down back.
Vote Chances
Jy Simpkin – 23 Disposals (17 Effective), 7 Clearances, 7 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 18 Pressure Acts, 406 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Taryn Thomas – 23 Disposals (16 Effective), 9 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 7 Tackles, 20 Pressure Acts, 509 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Peter Wright – 20 Disposals (15 Effective and 11 Contested), 7 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 7 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets and 3 Goals
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Essendon) Jake Stringer (5)
17 Disposals (12 Effective), 4 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets and 4 Goals
2 Votes (Essendon) Darcy Parish (24)
34 Disposals (16 Contested), 6 Marks, 8 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 28 Pressure Acts, 463 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
3 Votes (Essendon) Zach Merrett (19) ⭐
39 Disposals (31 Effective and 10 Contested), 9 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 22 Pressure Acts and 435 Metres Gained
Note – A tough match to separate the votes with several Bombers making significant contributions. Merrett was consistent in the middle all game and used the footy at a high disposal efficiency. Stringer did have a big finish to the match, and Darcy Parish will also be a contender.
Collingwood vs Carlton
Collingwood 9.8 62 – Carlton 13.13 91
(Carlton by 29 Points)
The Magpies controlled this match for the first three quarters, but the fast-finishing Blues proved too strong in the last quarter and won the game.
Sam Walsh is in a rare patch of form and is moving up the 2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor leaderboard fast. He was brilliant in the win and kicked a crucial goal in the fourth term to help seal the match.
Matthew Kennedy was again good in the middle of the ground, whilst Jack Martin found some much-needed form in the win. Jack Silvagni took a huge mark in the closing stages, and Harry McKay was good in the last term and booted four goals for the match.
For the Pies, Jordan De Goey continues to impress in the middle of the ground, whilst John Noble and Chris Mayne racked up the disposals down back.
Vote Chances
Jack Martin – 18 Disposals (14 Effective), 11 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50 and 2 Contested), 7 Score Involvements, 5 Tackles, 20 Pressure Acts, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal
Harry McKay – 10 Disposals (8 Effective), 6 Marks (4 Contested and 3 Marks Inside 50), 5 Score Involvements and 4 Goals
Jacob Weitering – 18 Disposals (17 Effective), 12 Marks (4 Intercept Marks and 2 Contested), 9 Rebound 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 9 One Percenters and 8 Spoils
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Collingwood) Jordan De Goey (7)
31 Disposals (23 Effective), 12 Marks, 6 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 18 Pressure Acts and 507 Metres Gained
2 Votes (Carlton) Matthew Kennedy (2)
26 Disposals (18 Effective and 12 Contested), 7 Marks, 6 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 20 Pressure Acts, 480 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Lock of the Week
3 Votes (Carlton) Sam Walsh (22) ⭐⭐⭐
39 Disposals (31 Effective and 15 Contested), 9 Marks (2 Contested), 5 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 26 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Note – The Blues came from behind in the last term to defeat the Pies, and it was Sam Walsh who was their standout, and he gets the lock of the week. Elite running power, effective use of the football and a big goal in the last term should make him the clear favourite for the three votes.
Adelaide vs West Coast
Adelaide 8.8 56 – West Coast 14.14 98
(West Coast by 42 Points)
The Eagles needed to find some form, and they travelled to Adelaide and got the win in Nic Naitanui’s 200th game.
A small forward was the surprise in this match, with Jamie Cripps booting five goals and winning a heap of the football.
Nic Naitanui was good in the ruck, and midfielders Elliot Yeo, Andrew Gaff and Tim Kelly all impacted the middle. Veteran Shannon Hurn was good down back and set the tone early, whilst Liam Ryan was lively in the second half and snagged three goals.
For the Crows, it was once again their usual suspects, with Rory Laird, Ben Keays, Paul Seedsman and Brodie Smith all having decent games.
Vote Chances
Liam Ryan – 16 Disposals, 10 Marks (5 Marks Inside 50 and 2 Contested), 4 Inside 50s, 11 Score Involvements, 17 Pressure Acts, 408 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 3 Goals
Tim Kelly – 26 Disposals (12 Contested), 6 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 27 Pressure Acts and 425 Metres Gained
Shannon Hurn – 24 Disposals (22 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks (5 Intercept Marks and 2 Contested), 6 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 4 Tackles and 561 Metres Gained
Projected Votes
1 Vote (West Coast) Elliot Yeo (1)
22 Disposals (17 Effective and 12 Contested), 8 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 18 Pressure Acts, 404 Metres Gained, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal
2 Votes (West Coast) Andrew Gaff (10)
34 Disposals (30 Effective), 8 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements and 2 Goal Assists
3 Votes (West Coast) Jamie Cripps (3) ⭐⭐⭐
25 Disposals (19 Effective), 4 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Inside 50s, 13 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 3 One Percenters, 1 Goal Assist and 5 Goals
Note – Cripps has been around for a while now, but this was one of the best matches of his career. He was lively up forward all day and the exact lift the Eagles needed with a few other forwards currently in a form slump. He racked up a lot of the footy, booted five goals and was involved in a West Coast scoring thrust on many occasions.
GWS vs Sydney
GWS 11.6 72 – Sydney 15.8 98
(Sydney by 26 Points)
The Giants got the quick jump on the Swans with an early lead which they managed to keep at the halftime break. On the back of a significant third term, the Swans held the Giants goalless in the third quarter and set up another win.
Veterans Luke Parker and Josh Kennedy were excellent in the middle, while George Hewett also contributed.
Forwards Tom Papley and Lance Franklin also made the most of their opportunities up forward.
For the Giants, Tim Taranto and Harry Perryman had decent matches, and Stephen Coniglio was okay after an injury return.
Vote Chances
Tim Taranto – 27 Disposals (20 Effective), 4 Marks, 4 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 22 Pressure Acts and 445 Metres Gained
Tom Papley – 13 Disposals (11 Effective), 7 Score Involvements, 16 Pressure Acts, 2 Goal Assists and 4 Goals
Lance Franklin – 11 Disposals (8 Effective), 6 Marks (5 Marks Inside 50 and 4 Contested), 8 Score Involvements and 4 Goals
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Sydney) George Hewett (1)
30 Disposals (27 Effective and 15 Contested), 9 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 14 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 37 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal Assist
2 Votes (Sydney) Josh Kennedy (4)
30 Disposals (20 Effective and 17 Contested), 9 Clearances, 7 Score Involvements, 13 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles and 21 Pressure Acts
3 Votes (Sydney) Luke Parker (15) ⭐⭐
31 Disposals (23 Effective and 13 Contested), 4 Marks, 9 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 11 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 22 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Note – Parker was consistent throughout the win and used the footy well whilst creating many scoring chances. A few other Swans also had big games, but Parker is a noted vote-getter, and when he has an impact as he did in the win, he usually features in the votes.
Leaderboard – Round 18
Top 10
| Name | Projected Votes |
|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | 26 |
| Clayton Oliver | 25 |
| Darcy Parish | 24 |
| Jack Steele | 24 |
| Christian Petracca | 23 |
| Sam Walsh | 22 |
| Ollie Wines | 22 |
| Tom Mitchell | 21 |
| Zach Merrett | 19 |
| Touk Miller | 19 |
To see the projected votes from previous rounds, click the Brownlow Medal Predictor 2021 on the menu bar. You can also click the TAGS at the bottom of this post or use the links below.
Cheers and always Gamble Responsibly