Brownlow Medal Predictor, Round 20 2021
Twenty rounds are done and dusted, and the 2021 Brownlow Medal Count is shaping up as being a close one.
We have a tie at the top, with a leading Bulldog not favoured to poll last weekend, whilst a couple of Demons had big matches and are edging closer, and one of them now has a tie for the lead.
Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor for Round 20 of the 2021 AFL Season.
Be sure to check back each week of the 2021 AFL Season for an in-depth look at some of the better players for each round and who should get the votes.
Round by Round analysis of the Brownlow Medal Count. Who gets the Brownlow Votes, and who has the best chance to become the Brownlow Medal Winner on Brownlow Medal Night.
This Brownlow Medal Tracker features the players that have the best chance of getting the votes and three other players that are considered a vote chance.
A Star ⭐ rating is used to show the confidence level of each three-vote prediction.
⭐ = Tough Game to Pick
⭐⭐ = A Decent Chance
⭐⭐⭐ = Should get the Three Votes
St Kilda vs Carlton
St Kilda 12.9 81 – Carlton 18.4 112
(Carlton by 31 Points)
The Saints and the Blues went at it on a Friday Night, and the Blues controlled the match for most of the night and ran out comfortable winners.
Sam Walsh was again one of the Blues best with a lot of the footy and managed to boot three goals.
Jack Silvagni is beginning to mature as a footballer and was a big reason the Blues established a halftime lead. Harry McKay was lively up forward for the Blues booting five goals, whilst Patrick Cripps and Paddy Dow helped the Blues win the footy.
The Saints struggled in this match, but the effort of Jack Steele in the middle of the ground was second to none. He was the Saints best and a chance to poll despite the loss. Rowan Marshall was also productive, but it wasn’t enough to topple the Blues.
Vote Chances
Rowan Marshall – 22 Disposals (16 Contested), 4 Marks, 6 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 16 Hit-outs to advantage, 5 Tackles, 17 Pressure Acts, 4 One Percenters and 1 Goal
Harry McKay – 11 Disposals, 7 Marks (5 Marks Inside 50 and 2 Contested), 8 Score Involvements and 5 Goals
Patrick Cripps – 26 Disposals (21 Effective and 15 Contested), 6 Clearances, 7 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 19 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (St Kilda) Jack Steele (25)
36 Disposals (25 Effective and 19 Contested), 5 Marks, 8 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 14 Tackles, 30 Pressure Acts and 2 Goal Assists
2 Votes (Carlton) Jack Silvagni (3)
25 Disposals (17 Effective), 5 Marks, 6 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 23 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal
3 Votes (Carlton) Sam Walsh (25) ⭐⭐
26 Disposals (22 Effective and 11 Contested), 6 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 32 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 3 Goals
Note – The best individual effort on the ground was probably from a player from a side that lost, but hard to poll the maximum votes when playing for a side that was never really in the match. History from past counts would suggest that midfielders that rack up the football and boot three goals or more are pretty good shots at the maximum votes. Expect Walsh to continue his charge in the count at this point.
Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide
Western Bulldogs 15.15 105 – Adelaide 8.8 56
(Western Bulldogs by 49 Points)
The Dogs took on the Crows in Ballarat and were never really troubled to win the match comfortably.
It wasn’t Bulldogs star Marcus Bontempelli that dominated this one, with Caleb Daniel and Bailey Dale having a significant influence and using the footy at high efficiency.
Jack Macrae again did his usual thing in the middle and extracted the footy from congestion regularly. Tom Liberatore and Bailey Smith were consistent throughout the match, and Tim English was a presence throughout the contest.
The Crows were outplayed, but Tom Doedee was good down back, Rory Sloane and Ben Keays had a crack in the middle, and Reilly O’Brien impacted the ruck.
Vote Chances
Bailey Smith – 29 Disposals, 5 Marks, 4 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 7 Tackles, 25 Pressure Acts and 644 Metres Gained
Tom Liberatore – 25 Disposals (17 Effective and 14 Contested), 6 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles, 21 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal
Tim English – 14 Disposals (13 Effective), 6 Marks (2 Contested and 2 Intercept Marks), 4 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 5 Tackles, 5 One Percenters, 4 Spoils and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (W.Bulldogs) Bailey Dale (2)
31 Disposals (26 Effective), 9 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks (3 Intercept Marks), 5 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 682 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
2 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Jack Macrae (23)
31 Disposals (24 Effective and 19 Contested), 12 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 16 Ground Ball Gets, 24 Pressure Acts, 427 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
3 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Caleb Daniel (3) ⭐
32 Disposals (27 Effective), 5 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 5 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 20 Pressure Acts, 4 One Percenters, 564 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Note – Tough to split the votes in this clash with a few players that could potentially challenge. Caleb Daniel was consistent throughout the match and used the footy at high efficiency as he usually does.
North Melbourne vs Geelong
North Melbourne 6.6 42 – Geelong 8.14 62
(Geelong by 20 Points)
The Cats continued their winning form over the Kangaroos, but the Roos did put up a fight and were no pushover.
The two brothers from the Cats were a couple of the best players on the ground. Zach Guthrie was a late replacement for Tom Atkins, and he filled the spot perfectly down back. Read the play well with a stack of intercept possessions and intercept marks, and his impact was noticeable.
Cam Guthrie again won a lot of the football and used it well whilst hitting the scoreboard for a couple of goals.
Issac Smith provided a lot of run and carry for the Cats, whilst defenders Tom Stewart and Jed Bews had good games on the back half.
For the Kangaroos, Jy Simpkin and Luke Davies-Uniacke had an impact in the middle, and the elite ball use and smarts of Aaron Hall gave the Roos plenty of chances to attack.
Vote Chances
Jy Simpkin – 29 Disposals (20 Effective and 13 Contested), 8 Marks, 7 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 20 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal Assist
Luke Davies-Uniacke – 23 Disposals (12 Contested), 6 Marks, 6 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 23 Pressure Acts, 3 One Percenters, 464 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Issac Smith – 26 Disposals (21 Effective), 9 Marks, 9 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 718 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Projected Votes
1 Vote (North Melbourne) Aaron Hall (1)
36 Disposals (31 Effective), 6 Marks, 12 Rebound 50s and 757 Metres Gained
2 Votes (Geelong) Zach Guthrie (2)
28 Disposals (23 Effective), 11 Intercept Possessions, 13 Marks (6 Intercept Marks), 5 Inside 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets and 483 Metres Gained
3 Votes (Geelong) Cam Guthrie (19) ⭐⭐
29 Disposals (24 Effective and 13 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets and 2 Goals
Note – Guthrie may now have done enough for a top twenty finish, and he was the best midfielder on the ground in the Cats win. May have some competition from his brother for the maximum votes, but mids typically get the votes over defenders.
Collingwood vs West Coast
Collingwood 14.6 90 – West Coast 6.9 45
(Collingwood by 45 Points)
The Pies hosted the Eagles at the MCG and led from start to finish to dominate the match and win comfortably.
The Pies midfield was on, and their defence controlled the football, which is how the Eagles like to take over the game.
Jack Crisp had an impact from the back end and helped set up play on numerous occasions, as did Brayden Maynard.
Steele Sidebottom, Jordan De Goey and Taylor Adams won the midfield battle, and Brodie Grundy had a good match in the ruck.
The Eagles were never in this match, but Andrew Gaff won a stack of the football, and Nic Naitanui did his thing in the ruck.
Vote Chances
Taylor Adams – 34 Disposals (27 Effective and 14 Contested), 6 Marks, 8 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets and 19 Pressure Acts
Brodie Grundy – 22 Disposals (17 Effective), 10 Marks, 4 Clearances, 6 Tackles, 3 One Percenters and 1 Goal
Brayden Maynard – 30 Disposals (27 Effective), 9 Intercept Possessions, 11 Marks (3 Intercept Marks and 2 Contested), 5 One Percenters, 5 Spoils and 401 Metres Gained
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Collingwood) Steele Sidebottom (1)
33 Disposals (28 Effective), 7 Marks, 9 Score Involvements, 28 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
2 Votes (Collingwood) Jordan De Goey (9)
34 Disposals (28 Effective), 7 Marks, 6 Inside 50s, 6 Rebound 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 4 Tackles, 540 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
3 Votes (Collingwood) Jack Crisp (8) ⭐
36 Disposals (32 Effective), 10 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks (3 Intercept Marks), 5 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 4 One Percenters and 3 Spoils
Note – Tough to split the votes in this game with a bunch of Pies all contenders. The Pies won the match by controlling the football from the defensive end, and Jack Crisp racked up double-figure intercept possessions. He used the football at high efficiency and helped set the play up on a regular occurrence.
Gold Coast vs Melbourne
Gold Coast 4.6 30 – Melbourne 18.20 128
(Melbourne by 98 Points)
A Saturday afternoon smashing at Marvel Stadium and the Demons made another statement in the 2021 AFL Season.
The Dees won the match comfortably, and their two stars in the middle had big games.
Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver were brilliant in this match and played a big part in setting up a sizeable early lead for the Dees.
Max Gawn was good in the ruck and was well supported by Luke Jackson, who stepped up with four goals.
The Suns were outplayed in this one, but Touk Miller never stops trying and again loaded up the stats sheet in some key areas.
Vote Chances
Touk Miller – 34 Disposals (17 Contested), 7 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 10 Tackles, 29 Pressure Acts and 454 Metres Gained
Max Gawn – 16 Disposals (11 Effective and 11 Contested), 5 Marks, 4 Clearances, 11 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 13 Hit-outs to advantage, 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals
James Harmes – 24 Disposals, 5 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 4 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 8 Tackles and 29 Pressure Acts
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Melbourne) Luke Jackson (1)
17 Disposals (15 Effective), 3 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 8 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 4 One Percenters and 4 Goals
2 Votes (Melbourne) Clayton Oliver (28)
35 Disposals (27 Effective and 19 Contested), 10 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 19 Pressure Acts, 411 Metres Gained, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal
3 Votes (Melbourne) Christian Petracca (26) ⭐⭐
32 Disposals (22 Effective and 13 Contested), 10 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 6 Clearances, 10 Inside 50s, 15 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 19 Pressure Acts, 528 Metres Gained, 2 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Note – Petracca and Oliver came up big in this match, and it’s difficult to split the two. Petracca stood out with his ability to win the football and set up scoring chances a lot in the win. He used the football more efficiently than some of his other matches and will be hard to go past for the maximum votes, but Oliver also had a big match.
Hawthorn vs Brisbane
Hawthorn 14.8 92 – Brisbane 12.8 80
(Hawthorn by 12 Points)
The Hawks led from start to finish in this clash, and the score looked a lot better as the Lions pegged the margin back in the final term.
Jaeger O’Meara had a big match in the middle of the ground, whilst Chad Wingard won a lot of the football and snagged a couple of goals.
Tom Mitchell and James Worpel had good games in the middle of the ground, whilst Jack Scrimshaw and Sam Frost made it tough for the Lions forwards to hit the scoreboard.
The Lions were disappointing in this clash, but Jarryd Lyons was their best player, and Dayne Zorko also had an impact.
Vote Chances
Jack Scrimshaw – 25 Disposals (20 Effective and 10 Contested), 12 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks (6 Intercept Marks and 3 Contested), 4 Rebound 50s and 6 Ground Ball Gets
James Worpel – 26 Disposals (18 Effective and 10 Contested), 5 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 23 Pressure Acts, 483 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Jarryd Lyons – 38 Disposals (19 Contested), 9 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 9 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 27 Pressure Acts, 614 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Hawthorn) Tom Mitchell (22)
34 Disposals (27 Effective and 13 Contested), 6 Marks, 8 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 22 Pressure Acts, 598 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
2 Votes (Hawthorn) Chad Wingard (2)
32 Disposals (22 Effective), 7 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 4 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 23 Pressure Acts, 3 One Percenters, 503 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals
3 Votes (Hawthorn) Jaeger O’Meara (8) ⭐⭐
35 Disposals (27 Effective and 15 Contested), 5 Marks, 8 Clearances, 9 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 11 Tackles, 26 Pressure Acts, 461 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Note – O’Meara or Wingard will fight it out for the three votes in the win. O’Meara won lots of hardball and racked up double-figure tackles to provide a lot of pressure on the opposition mids. He will poll votes in the win, but Wingard will challenge for the three.
Essendon vs Sydney
Essendon 16.6 102 – Sydney 17.7 109
(Sydney by 7 Points)
The Bombers and the Swans went at it at the MCG on a Sunday afternoon, and it ended up being one of the matches of the round.
The talented Swans outfit came out on top in the end and won by a small margin.
Callum Mills was excellent in the win, whilst Luke Parker stepped up when the match was on the line and snagged a couple of goals.
Tom Papley managed to boot four goals up forward, and Jordan Dawson continues his impressive form down back. Justin McInerney also won a lot of the footy throughout the match.
For the Bombers, their two midfield stars Zach Merrett and Darcy Parish, were their two best and had a significant impact in the middle.
Vote Chances
Darcy Parish – 34 Disposals (24 Effective and 19 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 8 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles and 19 Pressure Acts
Tom Papley – 17 Disposals, 3 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 4 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 1 Goal Assist and 4 Goals
Jordan Dawson – 24 Disposals (20 Effective), 5 Intercept Possessions, 11 Marks (5 Contested), 5 Score Involvements and 4 Tackles
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Sydney) Luke Parker (18)
26 Disposals (23 Effective and 11 Contested), 5 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 9 Clearances, 7 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 18 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals
2 Votes (Sydney) Callum Mills (14)
33 Disposals (29 Effective), 12 Marks, 5 Rebound 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 6 Tackles, 19 Pressure Acts, 522 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
3 Votes (Essendon) Zach Merrett (22) ⭐⭐
35 Disposals (29 Effective and 10 Contested), 7 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 6 Inside 50s, 13 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 23 Pressure Acts, 624 Metres Gained, 4 Goal Assists and 2 Goals
Note – The Bombers may have lost the match, but Merrett seemed everywhere at stages and helped set up scoring chances on many occasions. He used the football at high efficiency and racked up many metres gained, but Callum Mills is a decent chance to pinch the maximum votes.
Fremantle vs Richmond
Fremantle 7.13 55 – Richmond 6.15 51
(Fremantle by 4 Points)
A Sunday afternoon thriller out West and the Dockers came out on top to defeat the Tigers and keep their finals hopes alive.
Andrew Brayshaw played one of the best games of his career in the middle for Freo with his elite running power and footy skills on show.
Adam Cerra and David Mundy also had good games in the middle, whilst Luke Ryan was rock solid down back.
For the Tigers, Sydney Stack had a noticeable impact as an intercept defender. Trent Cotchin and Dion Prestia also battled hard in the middle of the ground.
Vote Chances
David Mundy – 29 Disposals (23 Effective and 14 Contested), 5 Clearances, 4 Rebound 50s, 9 Ground Ball Gets and 22 Pressure Acts
Trent Cotchin – 32 Disposals (11 Contested), 4 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 4 One Percenters and 20 Pressure Acts
Dion Prestia – 31 Disposals (23 Effective and 10 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 4 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 5 Tackles (3 Tackles Inside 50), 24 Pressure Acts and 371 Metres Gained
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Richmond) Sydney Stack (1)
25 Disposals (24 Effective), 12 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (7 Intercept Marks), 5 Rebound 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 3 One Percenters and 455 Metres Gained
2 Votes (Fremantle) Adam Cerra (2)
33 Disposals (11 Contested), 7 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks, 9 Inside 50s, 4 Rebound 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 21 Pressure Acts and 735 Metres Gained
Lock of the Week
3 Votes (Fremantle) Andrew Brayshaw (9) ⭐⭐⭐
39 Disposals (30 Effective and 15 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 8 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 12 Tackles, 30 Pressure Acts, 3 One Percenters, 3 Spoils and 567 Metres Gained
Note – Brayshaw gets the Lock of the Week, and it was fitting when the ball ended up in his hands at the conclusion of the match. A brilliant performance in the win. Lock in the three votes.
GWS vs Port Adelaide
GWS 11.7 73 – Port Adelaide 15.10 100
(Port Adelaide by 27 Points)
The Power and the Giants went at it to finish the round at Marvel Stadium, and the Power was too talented and won the match.
Outside midfielder Karl Amon was the best player and used the football at an elite efficiency level.
Charlie Dixon was a presence up forward and kicked important goals, whilst Ollie Wines and Travis Boak had their usual impact in the middle of the ground.
The Giants were beaten, but Josh Kelly racked up a lot of the football, and Nick Haynes was solid down back.
Vote Chances
Josh Kelly – 31 Disposals (23 Effective), 4 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 20 Pressure Acts and 433 Metres Gained
Nick Haynes – 28 Disposals (23 Effective), 7 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (3 Intercept Marks and 2 Contested), 4 Rebound 50s, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 3 One Percenters, 3 Spoils and 559 Metres Gained
Travis Boak – 24 Disposals (17 Effective and 14 Contested), 7 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 17 Pressure Acts, 3 One Percenters, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Port Adelaide) Ollie Wines (24)
28 Disposals (26 Effective and 14 Contested), 6 Marks (2 Contested), 4 Clearances, 9 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 26 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal Assist
2 Votes (Port Adelaide) Charlie Dixon (4)
12 Disposals (9 Contested and 8 Effective), 5 Marks (4 Contested and 3 Marks Inside 50), 8 Score Involvements, 1 Goal Assist and 4 Goals
3 Votes (Port Adelaide) Karl Amon (6) ⭐⭐
31 Disposals (28 Effective and 11 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks, 9 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 19 Pressure Acts, 683 Metres Gained, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal
Note – It’s hard to ever be confident giving an outside midfielder the maximum votes, but Amon seemed everywhere at stages and kept hitting targets on a regular occurrence. The best player out there, but the umpires may not see it that way. Check out the Brownlow Medal Markets at PlayUp.
Leaderboard – Round 20
Top 10
| Name | Projected Votes |
|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | 28 |
| Clayton Oliver | 28 |
| Christian Petracca | 26 |
| Sam Walsh | 25 |
| Jack Steele | 25 |
| Darcy Parish | 24 |
| Ollie Wines | 24 |
| Jack Macrae | 23 |
| Zach Merrett | 22 |
| Tom Mitchell | 22 |
To see the projected votes from previous rounds, click the Brownlow Medal Predictor 2021 on the menu bar. You can also click the TAGS at the bottom of this post or use the links below.
Cheers and always Gamble Responsibly.